Worland, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

944
FXUS65 KRIW 102015
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
115 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and dry across most of the area today.
  Isolated to scattered light snow showers in YNP this
  afternoon. An isolated rain shower may make it as far south as
  Jackson.

- Remaining warm through Monday, with much of the area in the
  50s! There is a good chance (60%) of several locations east
  of the Continental Divide reaching 60 degrees Monday
  afternoon.

- Next consequential weather system brings impacts to WY late
  Monday through Tuesday night. Snow showers linger across
  northwest WY through this week.

- Another trough/weather system looks likely (70%) for next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

A weak shortwave is passing through the area today, with isolated to
scattered snow showers across northwest WY late this afternoon
through this evening. This shortwave has brought enough mid-level
moisture to allow standing wave clouds to form in the lee of
mountains through the Bighorn and Wind River Basins. This has
prevented radiational heating from warming temps at many locations
in these basins. A ridge will build back in after this shortwave
passes through, so temps will remain mild until Tuesday with the
next impactful weather system.

There is now high confidence in the timing of a large trough pushing
into the area from the west late Monday into Tuesday. Wind will
increase ahead of this weather system on Monday into Tuesday with
southwesterly flow developing and tightening of the pressure
gradient. High temps will be the warmest they have been for the past
few weeks, with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s east of the
Continental Divide, and upper 40s to middle 50s west of the
Continental Divide. It will be breezy Monday afternoon through
Monday night, but the strongest wind will occur on Tuesday as the
trough passes through and wind shifts northwesterly. The wind is
trending about 5 mph lighter Monday afternoon. There will be
widespread gusts of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the
Wind corridor from Eastern Sweetwater County up into southern
Johnson County Monday afternoon. Wind will remain elevated through
the overnight hours, Monday night as the trough approaches the area.
As the trough pushes through on Tuesday wind will increase across
the area, with gusts of 20-35 mph on average and up to 45 mph across
southern WY through Tuesday afternoon. The jet stream is likely
(70%) to remain over the region through Thursday, so it will remain
breezy to windy for most of the week.

Model guidance is in good agreement that this will be an open wave
trough that progresses quickly from west to east across the region.
With this type of weather system western WY predominantly takes the
brunt of the precip, with lee side mountain shadowing preventing
much precip from occurring east of the Continental Divide. NBM probs
for 48 hour precip (QPF) have increased for lower elevations east of
the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon/evening. Still, this
pattern is not a big precip maker, which can be illustrated by only
marginal increases in NBM probs of QPF greater than 0.1" to around
30% in eastern Fremont County and Western Natrona County. Overall
the trend is for lower precip (QPF) amounts west of the Continental
Divide with this weather system. Western mountains have NBM probs
for 48 hour precip (QPF) greater than 0.5" in the 10-30% range for
most mountain locations. There is a higher chance (50-70%) on the
Pitchstone Plateau where upslope is favored. As previously
mentioned, this weather system appears to be progressive in nature
and while it will very likely (90%) bring colder temps back to WY
for a few days it will take the cold air with it as it leaves.
Another trough is expected to follow right on the heels of the this
trough by this weekend. Ahead of this trough it will warm up on
Thursday. Model guidance may be a bit to progressive with this
trough, so wouldn`t be surprised if temps trend warmer for
Friday in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1022 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period. Weak shortwave
trough skirts the northern-quarter of the state late Sunday
afternoon through the evening. Precipitation will generally be
confined to the mountains, although a few sprinkles are possible
over the eastern Bighorn Basin 02Z-06Z/Monday. Mid-cloud decks lower
to BKN070-100 along and north of a line from KJAC to KWRL Sunday
evening, before quickly clearing from west-to-east between 06Z-
09Z/Monday. KCPR sees southwest surface wind 15-30kts until late
Sunday afternoon before decreasing to around 10kts. The southwest
wind 15-25kts returns to KCPR shortly after sunrise Monday, while
other terminals generally remain 10kts or less.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...CNJ